View From the Cheap Seats

While the debate all season long has been whether the St. Louis Cardinals should trade young talent to bolster their roster for a playoff run or continue their teardown by shedding veteran players for more minor league prospects, my stance remains unchanged.

They should do neither.

Whatever path the Redbirds take at the trade deadline should be one that leads forward in 2027 -- not a regrettable short-term move or a long range gamble on a Class A player.

Yes, the team should make some moves. But, especially with the signing of J.J Wetherholt to a long-term extension, the ultimate goal should not be to be competitive in five years. It should be to be a playoff hopeful within the next one two seasons.

How do you get there? If Chaim Bloom wants to trade the likes of Lars Nootbaar and Riley O'Brien, fine. But swap them for guys who are either younger major leaguers or who are in Class AAA knocking down the door.

Unfortunately, a lot of dramatic moves probably aren't going to be possible because of the health and the ineffectiveness of the Cardinals right now. Jojo Ramirez is on the injured list, Dustin May has been dealing with some nagging injuries -- and perhaps fatigue -- that have caused his earned run average to soar into the 5.00 range, and Ivan Herrera hasn't hit much at all lately. I don't think the team can afford to trade Herrera with the state of its offense. But catchers -- especially right handed hitters -- are at a premium right now. You could proabably get something for him. But what? May was signed to be traded at the deadline, but there are much more attractive options than him available on the market.

I also don't think St. Louis can afford to trade Alec Burleson if it plans to be competitive in 2027 and 2028. He's worth more to the Redbirds in the middle of its order right now than he would be t0 a team with a more capable offense where he might bat sixth or seventh. And if you're trying to develop young players, isn't it a good idea to have a positive role model in the clubhouse as opposed to letting them get their brains beat out and having to figure things out from zero?

While it appears the clock has struck midnight on Cinderella, this team has given St. Louis fans hope that the future is closer than it may have previously seemed. And it would be cruel to pull the rug out from beneath them to dig an even deeper hole to climb out of.

This team has a solid young core with Wetherhold, Masyn Winn, Jordan Walker, Michael McGreevy, more catching prospects than you can shake a Louisville Slugger at, and a healthy number of pitching prospects working their way toward Busch Stadium. It's time to build, not to tear down.

A June 8, 1959, from the St. Louis Globe-Democrat by cartoonist Amour Krupnik, on the subject of Wilmer Vinegar Bend” Mizell on the occasion of his seventh win of the season.

The day before, Mizell pitched the second game of a doubleheader against Philadelphia, limiting the Phillies to five hits in a 2–0 shutout victory.

Once touted as the “left-handed Dizzy Dean” when he was a prospect, the cartoon makes light of his failure to pan out, pointing out how long it took him in previous years to notch seven wins.

The cartoon's whole joke is the timeline on the right:
His 7th win June 7th puts him ahead of his past record for that win...

'52 - AUG. 16
'53 - JUNE 19
'56 - JUNE 9
'57 - SEPT. 3
'58 - JULY 29

The big "20 15 WINS" in the corner is the dream — 20 wins was the magic number for an ace in the 1950s. Manager Fred Hutchinson had said that year that Mizell was capable of winning 20.

Besides the Cardinals, Mizell pitched for the Pittsburgh Pirates and New York Mets. His nickname came from Vinegar Bend, Alabama, near his hometown of Leakesville, Mississippi.

After baseball: He settled in North Carolina and served three terms in the U.S. House of Representatives from 1969 to 1975.

I generally like the pitch challenge concept, although I’m not a huge fan of the regular replay system.

But I think Major League Baseball needs to tweek it a bit. I don’t know if the answer is increasing the number of challenges to something like five or if maybe they should get two an inning instead of two a game. After getting off to a good start, however, things seem to have bogged down because players are afraid to challenge bad pitches in the early innings and be wrong. Some teams seem to have forbidden any but their middle of the order sluggers from questioning pitches at all.

Today, St. Louis Cardinals leadoff man JJ Weatherholt had a strike called against him on the first pitch of the game which was at least three inches above the zone. He seemed visibly frustrated that he couldn’t risk a challenge at that point. Then, two pitches later he had a ball the same distance outside called for strike two. Again, he didn’t challenge.

Fortunately, he was able to single with two strikes. But the replay tool isn’t working as intended when players have to conserve challenges for later in the game. The goal of improving the calling of balls and strikes seems to falling short.

Indeed, in the bottom of the first the Cardinals had to challenge the third bad call in the first 15 pitches of the game, correctly objecting to the call of “ball” on a pitch that showed the entirety of the baseball to be in the zone.

St. Louis Cardinals slugger Stan Musial walloped his 400th home run against the Chicago Cubs on July 12, 1958 in St. Louis.

With a flair for the dramatic, Stan the Man blasted the solo homer in the bottom of the ninth to turn a tie ballgame into a 4-3 victory.

When did Byron Buxton become Rod Carew?

He’s 8-for-11 against the St. Louis Cardinals after starting the season with an uninspiring .256 batting average.

Has he suddenly become great, or is the STL bullpen just that awful? Unfortunately, I think it’s the latter.

Jo Jo Romero and Ryne Stanek have been disappointing. Matt Svanson has been worse and it looks like Ryan O’Reilly has run out of pixie dust.

I’m not sure if Blaze Jordan is ultimately going to stick at third base in the big leagues. His bat plays, but there is a reason the St. Louis Cardinals moved him to first in the minors.

So it appears to me, as we contemplate the front office’s moves at the deadline, that there are three people - Jordan, Alex Burleson and Ivan Herrera - for two positions, first base and designated hitter.

Has the ship sailed when it comes to Burleson playing in the outfield? He’s definitely a better fielder at first. But when Lars Nootbaar inevitably gets injured again or else traded, Burleson and his big bat could find their way into the lineup via left field.

I bring this up because I fear that Burleson and Herrera are likely both in danger of being dealt in July, and it would be a mistake to give to those offensive weapons. Despite what we have been led to believe, bats don’t grow on trees. At least not productive ones.

Whether or not he’s nearing thirty, Burleson is a much more effective source of lefthanded production than the likes of Nolan Gorman or Nootbaar. At some point, you have to stop letting talent walk out the door. Don’t let the arrival of Blaze Jordan be the excuse for sending Burleson packing. They can easily coexist.

If the Cardinals must trade one of them, the most replaceable one is Herrera with Jimmy Crooks already on the scene behind the plate.

The Milwaukee Brewers have reportedly signed outfield prospect Luis Lara to a seven-year extension worth $31MM.

Why aren’t the St. Louis Cardinals, who have loudly proclaimed their desire to build a contender through developing their own talent, making an effort to ensure said talent doesn’t spend its prime elsewhere?

It’s common sense that the earlier the players are locked up to long term deals, the more affordable they are likely to be. And let’s be honest, the labor uncertainty with the threat of a salary cap potentially wiping out the 2027 campaign is a major motivating factor for players.

Guys who don’t have several years of six or seven-figure salaries in their portfolio don’t have to worry about weathering the storm. Guys who have earned the MLB minimum for a year or two, minus taxes, agents’ fees and their percentage to the players association still worry about how they’re going to pay their mortgage, their personal trainer and sports nutritionist and support their family.

If teams offer a rookie $30-$40 million for seven years with a $2 million signing bonus up front, he might take it. If you offer a guy finishing his third or fourth season who has made a few bucks and who can smell free agency an extension, it’s going to cost twice as much and be half as long. Once a good player reaches arbitration, forget it. You’re going to pay premium player rates to buy out his freedom.

JJ Wetherholt, Masyn Winn, and Micheal McGreevy top the list of guys the Cardinals need to extend before it’s too late or too expensive. And maybe, because of his struggles the past two years, Jordan Walker would be eager for some career security.

While some guys might not pan out, the risk is far smaller than the cost of signing veteran players to deals that pay $30 million annually for three or four years.

I was more than a little surprised today to read an article from Ken Rosenthal, one of the most respected baseball writers in the country these days, which dismissed the idea of a salary cap and suggested it's unnecessary in the current state of baseball.

https://sports.yahoo.com/articles/ken-rosenthal-publicly-against-mlb-134819652.html

The heart of his argument was centered on the idea that MLB has already done all it must to guarantee competitive balance by creating wild card spots through which the have nots have ample opportunity to reach post season glory.

The fact of the matter is, however, that most of those bonus playoff berths are more likely to go to additional major market teams as they are to go to the peasants of the major leagues. Only 37 percent of playoff teams have been small market clubs over the course of the past decade. And when they do make it to the big dance, they're little more than cannon fodder for the well-financed clubs with aces stacked upon aces and the sort of sluggers only money can buy.

Only 22 percent of teams that make it the division series level of the playoffs, 15 percent make it to the league championship series and 10 percent have made it to the World Series. That's hardly balance.

I can see why Rosenthal, a lifelong New Yorker, doesn't want to see the home teams give up their advantage. But the saying goes that rising tide lifts all boats. I'd love to see my team have an unsurmountable advantage, too. At least for a while. But it's no fun to watch a game that we all know is rigged and is going to turn out the same way over and over and over again.

He further argues that a salary cap is unworkable because big town owners aren't going to want to share their hard-earned income with the little guys. So, they probably wouldn't pass it if players agreed to the measure.

Does he seriously believe that owners would come up with a proposal with a specific salary cap, salary floor and revenue sharing plan without running it past everyone first? That's not how these things work. And it's silly to suggest that big city owners wouldn't want a cap. Why? because they're the ones it would HELP THE MOST!

Major League Baseball owners lost $1.8 million last year (I know, I know, don't cry for them because they and their franchises are worth billions and it's not as if they're going to starve.) But rich guys don't like to throw away their money more than any of the rest of us -- maybe less. And it's not the Pittsburgh Pirates or even the Philadelphia-Kansas City-Oakland-Las Vegas Athletics of Anaheim who are losing the most money. It's the spending crazy New York Mets who led the way with $350 million plus in net operating losses. Also on the list of losers were the Los Angeles Dodgers, the Toronto Blue Jays and the Philadelphia Phillies. Ironically, it's the Athletics, Cleveland Guardians and other teams with the tiniest payrolls that actually make a profit because there is already revenue sharing in the form of a payroll tax. It's just enough structure to save a few billionaire owners from their own vanity.

Meanwhile, teams like the San Diego Padres have tightened their belts in the last couple of years after a bold spending spree that saw them pay nine-figure contracts to the likes of Manny Machado and Fernando Tatis Jr and the St. Louis Cardinals have given up on their efforts to creatively keep up with the Joneses, nearly slashing their payroll in half in a rebuilding effort. It's obvious owners see something has to give.

Again, I don't feel sorry for owners or players. They all make many, many times over as much money as us poor suckers who buy tickets will earn in our lifetime. But baseball needs to be saved from itself to make it even plausibly affordable for average Joes and to reinvigorate fan interest in places where stadiums sit half full because their teams don't have a realistic chance to compete.

This is a huge opportunity for owners and players to come together to create something that works well for everyone -- that ultimately makes them MORE money because the value of their product is enhanced. I really hope they don't screw it up... Again.

,