Weather 2020

There has been a lot of "hype" on the developing heat later this week. For KC it is going to get very hot, but it may not last more than a couple of days. Who is ready for fall? Extreme Heat is forecast to build over Montana & the Dakotas this weekend. This forecast map shows the outlook for Sunday at 4 PM Central Time. The heat is forecast to build into one week from now, next Monday, then back up to the western states. The east coast has gotten very wet, and it will cool off there this weekend. Have a great start to your week!

Gooooooooood morning! ☀️🇺🇸. If this were the old blog, I would be bringing up the argument of the heat is being exaggerated by these extreme Heat Warnings. It is 3 to 5 degrees hotter than average.
It is the beginning of the long Fourth of July week! Here is one of the temperature forecasts valid at 6 PM Mountain Time on Saturday, July 4th. The cool pocket over Nebraska is being caused by a thunderstorm complex, while most of the nation looks dry for Independence Day.
In Kansas City, the heat looks pretty typical for early July. However, it may feel a bit more uncomfortable because everything is so green, the ground is so wet, and the dew points are high, adding extra humidity to the air.
As always, we'll continue to fine-tune the forecast throughout the week as New Data comes in. Have a fantastic start to your holiday week! 🇺🇸🌤️🎆

Gooooooooood morning! Here we go again! While I'm in Golden, Colorado enjoying sunshine, dry weather, blue skies, and no thunderstorms, Kansas City is facing risk after risk of severe thunderstorms and potential flooding in a very active late-spring weather pattern.
Summer officially begins Sunday, but on the last full day of spring, on Saturday, another active severe weather set up is unfolding. The red blob on the rainfall forecast highlights an area where 3 to 6 inches of rain may fall on already saturated fields.
This setup will likely evolve into a complex of intense thunderstorms capable of producing damaging winds, large hail, and possibly a few tornadoes. For the Kansas City area, Saturday night appears to be the main concern, with damaging winds currently the greatest threat.
In the meantime, a few showers and thunderstorms are moving north and south of Kansas City this morning, with the heaviest activity near Garnett, Kansas.
Here in Golden, it's a gorgeous morning with blue skies overhead, so Sunny, Rainbow, and I are heading out for a long walk.
Have a great Thursday!

What a night!
There have been many reports of trees down, property damage, and widespread power outages across the Kansas City area. The severe thunderstorm threat is now over in KC and has now shifted south and continues moving southeast.
This incredible photo was captured by Scott Lathrom in Overland Park. It shows the thunderstorm as it approached Overland Park and intensified over the KC metro area while tracking east-southeast. There were several tornado warnings associated with these thunderstorms, and it has certainly been quite a severe weather season.
What you're seeing here is a dramatic shelf cloud extending low to the ground. Beneath the shelf cloud is a curtain of torrential rain, so heavy that it obscures much of the storm structure behind it, but above, wow, look at that storm structure. The line of thunderstorms continued to strengthen as it passed Overland Park and crossed the state line from Kansas into Missouri.
The good news is that Sunday and Monday should bring some relief, with gorgeous late-spring weather expected across Kansas City.
Let me know what you experienced from this storm and share your photos in the comments.

Good Afternoon! A Tornado Watch was just issued and it does include the Kansas City metro area. Look at this latest Surface Map I just plotted. There is a low pressure area moving into central Kansas. A cold front (the blue line) and a warm front (the red line) extend out of this surface low, and there is a trough, or wind shift line extending south from the low. It is 100° in southeast Colorado and 61° to the north. Please be weather aware this afternoon as the thunderstorms begin to form. I will check back in soon. Let me know if you have any questions.

I went to see Pressure last night and give it a rare 4 out of 4 stars. The acting was superb. Eisenhower was portrayed powerfully, and the two meteorologists, Stagg and Crick, brought to life a battle over forecasting philosophies that still exists today. Their performances were so convincing that you could feel the intensity, uncertainty, and pressure that comes with making a forecast when so much is at stake.
As a meteorologist, this movie hit home. The tension when one forecast appears to be failing, and the relief when the atmosphere finally reveals the answer, was portrayed flawlessly. One of the central debates in the movie involved whether the best forecast comes from analog years or from understanding the unique atmospheric pattern unfolding right now. That discussion resonated with me because it touches on some of the same questions I have spent decades studying through the Lezak Recurring Cycle (LRC).
The photo below is of me with Dr. Roland Madden (MJO), one of the most respected atmospheric scientists in the world. Next week we will meet again as we continue our research into the LRC and the question that drives every meteorologist: How can we better predict the future?
Overall, a GREAT movie. Highly recommended. And, yes, you can go back to the movie theaters. The ticket cost was $11.99, but my food was $44.99. Yes, I got an Icee, bunch a crunch, and popcorn.

There is our first thunderstorm! Gooooooooood evening everyone. Keep your eye to the sky as it may not stay dry! The first thunderstorm just formed just southwest of Olathe. This thunderstorm is growing fast. Large hail is the first risk within 30 minutes as it drifts into Johnson County on the Kansas side! This is the first thunderstorm of what will likely be a cluster of them forming in the next few hours. Let me know if you can see this thunderstorm as you look to the southwest as the sun begins to set!

Severe Thunderstorms are erupting out near the Nebraska border stretching south into central Kansas. These are going to organize and head towards KC arriving this evening. There is a tornado risk today, so let's keep a close eye on these thunderstorms. I will check in later.

A Severe Weather Outbreak is likely late Monday afternoon and evening. Northeast Kansas is the target for what may end up being a tornado outbreak. The map on the left shows the likely surface set up and this map is a forecast for 7 PM Monday. There is a triple point, the L, the low pressure center near Gage, OK. This is looking like an ominous set up for an outbreak with strong tornadoes possible. Kansas City is on the southeast edge of the significant risk. Areas like Lawrence and Manhattan, Kansas are more directly in this risk. The map on the right shows that the Storm Prediction Center is targeting this area with a rather high 15% probability of a strong tornado within 25 miles of any spot in that red dashed region. Let's all pay close attention to this on Monday.