Speed Theory

Ironman NZ week is upon us, as usually happens this time of year. Thus it is time to look at the weather forecast.
I have good news and bad news.
The good is that the chance of rain is rated very low.
The bad is that the ride will take longer, however this is course related, not conditions.
The bike course change is going to cost ~7-15mins (the penalty escalates with slower pace). We've already seen proof of this with the 70.3 course.
The conditions are a little faster than 2025 ~80s for the 5hr and below athletes, 2-3mins for 6hrs and above.
The wind will be mostly in your face on the return leg, but everyone should be used to that by now and it's not particularly strong.
Note that it will be quite chilly at the beginning of the ride (13-15deg depending on your swim pace) so dress accordingly.

The conditions for the run are promising - not too hot, a bit of wind off the lake and some cloud cover.

As of today, the lake level is extremely similar to last year and the outflow is a little higher, so the swim conditions should be the same - the low early wind will mean smooth water.

Image courtesy of suncalc.org showing that there could be some sunstrike for faster swimmers on the final leg to the swim exit.

PS. If you're doing the 70.3 the numbers above will be roughly half, aside from the start temperature at a balmy 10deg.

The Loan Market Oceanside Tauranga Half & Fulton Hogan Mount Festival is upon us once again. Which makes it a good time to look at the weather forecast.

And it's actually quite nice. No rain is forecast and the temperatures will be fairly mild.

The swim will mostly be in slack tide conditions for the age groups (incoming tide for the Pro/Open field) which should make the drag along the beach a little less soul destroying.

The wind directions are not particularly favourable - you'll feel a bit of a crosswind outbound on the bike the first time, which will switch to a more direct headwind on the second lap. However - this should mean a fast ride back to T2. And the wind speed is forecast to be low, so it shouldn't be too sapping riding into it.

Overall the riding conditions are slightly faster than last year: 20-40s depending on the speed you're going. This is thanks to marginally lower air density and the lower wind speed.

Once on to the run the temperature will rise of course, make sure you make the most of the opportunity to hydrate with the tailwind home on the bike to prepare for the run.

All the best to everyone racing