Betting Tips - Cricket

Adelaide Strikers v Sydney Sixers

The Strikers are hot favourites here and rightly so. Their main man Rashid Khan has narrowly missed out on a couple of man-of-the-match awards and may be due, says Jamie Pacheco.

Strikers looking a real threat for the title
There's no doubting how impressive the Hobart Hurricanes' start to the season has been but seasoned Big Bash punters may be eyeing up the Adelaide Strikers instead of the Hurricanes. Not just on price but because, quite frankly, the Hurricanes have had it all their own way so far. They've played four out of five in Tasmania and got to chase in each of their last four, which is what they like doing.

In the process of making it three wins from five, the Strikers have played in different conditions, won both chasing and defending, adapted to varied par scores and relied on different players to make key contributions. In other words, they look a more balanced side with more strings to their bow. At 4/1 at the time of writing, they'd be my pick from the winner market if I were to have a bet at this stage.

Last time out it was Jake Weatherald doing the damage with the bat with a brilliantly-paced 71 off 44. But absolutely crucial in turning a par score into a good one was Rashid Khan's 21 off seven balls which meant the Renegades were under more pressure to score quickly which in turn led to wickets.

A tale of two overseas players
The Sixers are three from er...six. That's not bad given they were the outsiders at the start of the tournament but they're not fully convincing.

Their main problem is at the top of the order (see below) and it's crazy that they haven't batted Daniel Hughes in his regular position as an opener. They need to shift him up top from three or four and give him as many balls to face as possible.

That could be at the expense of Joe Denly. It's just not working for the Kent man who has just 61 runs from six knocks so they could either swap places in the batting order or they could be really brave and drop Denly entirely.

It's been a very different story for their other overseas player. Tom Curran has taken 10 wickets at a superb economy rate of 6.42 and added a valuable 111 runs at a very impressive strike rate of 144, the second highest of anyone in the side. He's forcing the selectors to stand up and take note with a T20 World Cup coming up next year.

Odds compilers taking no chances on the Strikers
If you've read the two previous sections, you'll know by now that it's hard to make a case for the Sixers. The Strikers are a better outfit, they're at home and are carrying more momentum.

We'd certainly be wanting bigger than 5/4 about Moises Henriques' men before taking the plunge. If backing favourites who deliver as jollies are your thing then you could do far worse than piling into the Strikers at 8/13. But we don't want to be tipping at that sort of price.

Hughes the stand-out choice for the Sixers
I've already said that I'm not quite sure what the Sixers are thinking by not opening with Daniel Hughes. If they make the change and let him open, that 4/1 will look very big indeed before a ball has even been bowled.

But even if he doesn't, there's plenty to like about him and that price. He's fresh from hitting 61 against the Hurricanes, he's the team's second highest runscorer behind only Jordan Silk and he really doesn't have much to beat with Denly, Henriques and J Avendano so badly out of form.

Silk is a threat at 11/2 but Hughes is likely to bat two places higher than him and that could make all the difference. If Hughes gets in and one other player hangs around with him then Silk may just not have enough deliveries to give him a chance.

Khan has to win it again sooner or later
Rashid Khan has played five matches so far and has one man-of-the-match award to show for his efforts, which he got in his first outing. Had the Strikers won the two they lost, he could easily have got the award in those two as well because he was the Strikers' outstanding player on both occasions. And he could easily have got in the last match too.

His cameo with the bat made a huge difference and alongside his spell of four overs, one wicket and just 18 runs conceded, could have earned him the gong. He also had two very strong LBW decisions turned down. Had one of them been given he would surely have got the nod over Weatherald.

India vs Australia 2nd T20🏏🇦🇺🇮🇳

India's top-order conundrum
India might blame lots of factors for their surprise defeat by Australia in the first T20 in Brisbane; rain just when they were about to unleash their death bowlers, an inflated target under the Duckworth-Lewis method or Krunal Pandya's wet gloves as he looked to cut loose in the final over.

None of these would have mattered, however, had Virat Kohli not chronically underperformed. Kohli managed four runs from eight balls. Had he managed a strike rate of 100 (Hardly difficult for a man who has a career rate of just under 140) then the four-run margin off defeat would have been wiped out.

This is not a simplistic way of looking at it. Never before had Kohli managed a strike rate of lower than 85 in a chase for India. That's 26 innings. Across his entire T20 international career, Kohli had only recorded a strike rate of 50 or less three times. Three times in 59 innings.

Good news for India, then. Kohli cannot surely be as bad again. And good news for punters, too, because they should be confident that a bet on Kohli to perform to his potential is more likely to come off.

As a result of his no-show at The Gabba, Kohli has been bumped off the head of the betting for top India runscorer. Rohit Sharma and Shikhar Dhawan are the front two at 13/5 and 3/1 respectively. Kohli is 7/2. Is that value?

Yes. Across his career Kohli cops with the regularity of a 7/4 chance. There is a problem, though. Kohli has batted (apart from two innings) from Nos 1 to 4. And he is not as prolific at No 4 as he is at No 3, his best position. He averages 40 (not including not outs) compared to 26.5. That's a significant chunk and should be enough to convince the India brains trust to reinstate him.

That gulf may also down more pure value. Kohli is 8/1 to win the man of the match award. Statistically, he should be about 15/2. If we could guarantee that Kohli would bat at No 3 then we would be on both. But then he wouldn't be 7/2, would he?

India have a slight problem with their line-up as they have, essentially, too many good batsmen. They have to find room for KL Rahul, who should probably be opening, but then they can't drop either Rohit or Dhawan.

Kuldeep underrated
Kuldeep Yadav won the India top bowler market in Brisbane. T'was ever thus. Kuldeep is the most consistent bowler in the world in this market. He should be favourite every time he plays.

He isn't for this game. Jasprit Bumrah gets the nod at 5/2 with Betfair Sportsbook. Bumrah is an excellent bowler. Likewise his partner in crime, Bhuv Kumar, who is 4/1. But Kuldeep cops 15 per cent more often than Sportsbook suggest with an 11/4 quote.

We're a little worried that rain and cold wind might make Kuldeep's task trickier at the MCG but it's difficult to argue with that sort of edge.

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Rajasthan Royals v Kolkata Knight Riders: KKR up against it in Jaipur..

Knight Riders back on their feet..

The Knight Riders got a morale-boosting win against Delhi Daredevils last time out. And boy they needed it. Back-to-back defeats had caused a crisis of confidence in their abilities.

The first of those losses was pretty harrowing. They failed to defend 202 against Chennai Super Kings, a loss which suggested their bowling unit was not strong enough to challenge. They were then outclassed by Sunrisers Hyderabad, further exposing the gulf between them and the best.

It is unusual for a fancied side to be put in their place so firmly so early and they could have been forgiven for having a struggle against Delhi.

They were indebted to the extraordinary hitting of Andre Russell, however. Russell is a one-man show at the moment who could sell out arenas. His 153 runs, second on the overall list, have come at a strike rate of 239. He has hit 19 sixes. Phenomenal.

Royals need Sodhi..

If there is one team in this tournament that is making us scratch our heads it is the Royals. They have a 2-1 record and last time out blitzed Bangalore Royal Challengers after teetering on the edge at 50-odd for two.

This despite, seemingly, a refusal to pick their best players. There have been no spots available for Jofra Archer or Ish Sodhi. Now, we can understand that Archer may be overlooked but it truly is astonishing that Sodhi, a class performer, did not get a game at the Chinnaswamy where spin has been crucial.

Without Sodhi, Rajasthan do not have a spinner who will worry the opposition. But if he is picked here it will probably mean that D'Arcy Short, their Australian opener, will have to make way. He is averaging seven at a strike rate of 87. That's awful.

Sanju Samson is leading the charge with the bat and is the top runscorer in the tournament. It was his assault which downed Bangalore. They need him to fire because, unlike other franchises, they seem short on fully-fledged India internationals.

Fortress Jaipur..

Rajasthan don't lose in Jaipur very often. They have won their last eight. That stat is slightly misleading, though, because before their win over Delhi this season they hadn't played at the venue since 2013. We can't get too hung up about average scores, then. In the last five 160 has been busted only once. So it might not pay off to expect a run fest in the first-innings runs market.

Chaser should dominate again..

Rajasthan are rated as the outsiders here at 2.22. If we could guarantee they would chase here and now and Sodhi would play we'd be all over that price. The likelihood is, of course, that is if they chase they will come in to around even money in a choice affair.

The trend for the chaser to dominate should continue at a ground where the toss has always been vital. Of the last 24 matches 16 have been won by the team batting second. This makes Kolkata at 1.80 an awful pre-toss wager.

Short Short..

Short might get one last hurrah in a bid to find form before he is axed. But even if he does Betfair Sportsbook's 11/4 that he top scores for the Royals isn't going to appeal. Ajinkya Rahane is 12/5 favourite. Samson, after his exploits against Bangalore is 16/5. Ben Stokes could prove popular at 5/1.

Lynn could be ready to go..

Chris Lynn has had a quiet start to the IPL but there are signs he is beginning to find his feet. He has a 31 and 49 in his last two outings. It appears that he is being more circumspect than in the Big Bash where he can thrash away with abandon. Against spinners on tougher tracks he has been more reserved. But now could be his time if the Royals fail to pick Sodhi. It could give him licence to attack. He is 5/2 for to-bat honours. But we like the 5/6 that Befair Sportsbook offer about him hitting more than 2.5 fours.

Russell underrated for match gong..

A word on the man of the match market. Should Russell be 12/1 with Betfair Sportsbook? Granted he is yet to pick up an award this term but it is surely only a matter of time. Under-performing players like Rahane, Short and Stokes are all shorter in the betting. That can't be right. Sunil Narine looks a fair jolly at 8/1, though.

spinner Ankit Sharma 'turning' the heat on at the practice session!!!

Who's gonna be the victorious leader in tomorrow's clash?
Ajinkya Rahane ⚡ Dinesh Karthik