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COUNTDOWN TO ELECTION 2016: VOTER TURN-OUTS
On the day of election, most of us become lost as to who is likely to win as results keep trickling in. We mostly rely on radio stations for a clue but we get little to none. Well, one of the key indicators to watch out for is the voter turnout.
If most of the constituency results are characterized by LOW VOTER TURNOUTS (usually below 70 percent). Then one of two things (or both) is likely to happen.
One, there's likely to be a run-off. And history tells us that no incumbent government has ever won a run-off election in Ghana here. So if you're incumbent and you spot this trend earlier, you have to roll out your plan B. That's if you have one.
Two, there's high probability of regime change. The low turnouts appear to be caused by apathy votes from strongholds of the incumbent.
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KETU SOUTH AND THE 120,000 PUZZLES
By: Justice Monakk
==================

Okay. So where do I begin???

Some group of people say they're going to win 120,000 votes for Mahama in 2016. How is that my business??? After all, there was a total of 135,267 registered voters on the voters' roll before the just ended limited registration exercise began. And by the time it ended, a total of 11,199 new registrants were recorded. We're told by the EC officials that this figure is PROVISIONAL - that's, subject to changes. But for the purpose of this analysis, I'm going to use it as a whole.

That takes the total number of registered voters on the Ketu South voters' register to 146,466.

Well, it's none of my business except that I've to determine if I should take the one making the assertion serious or not.
So join me on a ride...to KETU SOUTH CONSTITUENCY

1. If every single person of the 146,466 were to vote in November 2016, then NDC winning 120,000 votes would represent 81.93%. That share of votes by the NDC would have been their worst performance since this fourth republic, considering the fact that NDC have always won in Ketu South in excess of 90% since 1992, the least was 91.49% by Prof Mills in the December 7, 2000 election. Over the last 6 elections, the NDC have won an average of 93.53% of Ketu South votes.

So if by our initial assumption that every single of the 146,466 currently on the register will vote in November then NDC, in fact, should be winning 136,990 votes, almost 17,000 more than their 120,000 target. The NDC executives there must start jubilating now.

But here's the bad news for them -- NOT EVERYONE ON THE VOTERS' ROLL WILL VOTE come November 2016. This may be due to several reasons such as deaths, migration, transfer votes, some acquiring the voter's ID card not necessarily to vote but as a proof of citizenship and other reasons you can think of. That is not the subject of this discussion.

2. That brings us to the question: THEN HOW MANY OF THAT 146,466 ARE GOING TO VOTE IN NOVEMBER???

And the answer is: I DON'T KNOW!!! But I can give you a fair idea.

Ketu South, just like any other constituency, has a history of how many people turnout to vote in every election held in this country since 1992.

In 1992, out of a voter population of 58,074 a total of 18,415 actually went to vote. This represents just 31.71% (very abysmal).

In 1996, 59,330 people out of 77,296 went to vote -- representing 76.76% voter turnout.

Then in 2000election, 52.49% of 86,170 registered voters went to vote. In 2004, 88.01% (the most turnout) voted out of 81,186.

In 2008, there were 98,283 on the roll and 61,449 (62.52%) voted. Finally, in 2012, out of a registered voter population of 126,659; 71.30% (that's, 90,307) actually voted.

Now here is the catch. The voter turnout goes like:
1992 - 31.71%
1996 - 76.76%
2000 - 52.49%
2004 - 88.01%
2008 - 62.52%
2012 - 71.30%
2016 - ❓

If you have a mathematical eye, the most obvious thing you can spot from the turnout rates above is that, the turnout in 2016 will be lower than that of 2012 -- and you're right!!!

The turnout rate increased by 45.05% between 1992 and 1996, dropped by 24.27% between '96 and 2000. Then increased again by 35.52% from 2000 to 2004 dropped again by over 25% in 2008 and finally increased between 2008 and 2012 by 8.78%.

Based on this trend, our time series statistical model has predicted that the voter turnout rate of 71.30% in 2012 will drop by 3.93% in 2016 to 67.37%.

Armed with that figure and the current provisional voter population of 146,466 it is estimated that a total of 98,672 votes are going to be cast in 2016. This will be 8,365 more than total votes cast in 2012.

Because, total votes cast and total valid votes (the sum of votes for all parties) have direct relationship, total valid votes is proportionately estimated to increase by 7,452 votes; thus, increasing from 87,904 in 2012 to 95,356 valid votes in 2016.

Sharing this among the parties using smoothed averages of their respective share of votes, NDC is estimated to win 88,850 votes (an increase of 6,970 from 2012), representing 93.18%.

NPP is estimated to get 5,540 votes (an increase of 375), which represents 5.81% of valid votes in 2016 whiles the other parties share the rest 967 votes (1.01%).

In summary:

PROJECTED KETU SOUTH PRESIDENTIAL RESULTS - ELECTION 2016
By: Justice Monakk
--------------------

NDC - 88,850 (93.18%)

NPP - 5,540 (5.81%)

Others - 932 (1.01%)

--------------------

VALID - 95,356

REJECTED - 3,316

CAST - 98,672

TURNOUT - 67.37%

REGISTERED° - 146,466

NB: This projection is at 2.5% margin of error (that is, 95% confidence interval).

THE 120,000 PUZZLES

Our analysis above shows that with a voter turnout of 67.37% and the current provisional voter population of 146,466; even if the NDC is the only party in the race, they can't achieve the 120K they can only dream of.

But for the purpose of this discussion, assuming NDC gets 120,000 votes with the current provisional voter population. That gives them 93.27% of valid votes.

This can only happen at a voter turnout of 90.25% which will put total votes cast at 132,180. NPP Will get 7,214 votes (5.61%) and the other parties share the rest 1,448 (1.12%).

The big question is: Can the 90% voter turnout happen to give the NDC their 120K, looking at the trend ??? Well, your guess is as good as mine. November 7 is just 175 days away. We'll find out soon.

©GMJ Research Group

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