Value Betting Guide by Gordon Boyce

British racing is in a bit of a mess just now. Falling field sizes, declining betting turnover, arguments between some of the biggest organisations in the sport and seemingly no real agreement about where we should be heading.

I've spent a bit of time thinking about what I would actually do differently if we stopped tinkering around the edges and started looking 20 or 30 years ahead.

Some of my ideas are fairly radical. Fewer but stronger meetings. A much more geographically sensible fixture list. Proper racing television appointments. A far bigger role for the Tote and World Pool. And perhaps even a new relationship between British racing and betting exchanges.

The bookmakers probably won't be rushing to endorse it. I'm sure plenty of people within racing won't either.

But that's really the point. I think we've reached the stage where protecting the status quo might actually be riskier than changing it.

I've put all my thoughts together in a new article. It's a longer read than my usual posts, but I'd genuinely be interested to hear what racing people think, whether you agree with me or think I've completely lost the plot!

Have a read here:

valuebettingguide.co.uk

I've opened up a big one for today's FREE interactive VBG Race Card.

It's the Ebor at York, one of the great betting races of the Flat season and exactly the sort of race I built VBG for.

Over twenty runners, loads of different form lines, proven Group horses mixed in with improving handicappers and plenty of perfectly plausible winners. You can spend hours going round in circles with a race like this.

The VBG approach is to try to bring some structure to it.

Every runner has our bespoke VB Rating, our own tissue price and the supporting Data Centre metrics. The live Betfair market is then brought into the equation through the Value Scores, so you're not just asking which horses have the best chance. You're asking whether the market is offering the right price for that chance.

My own selection is Opportunity at 15/1.

He's got top weight and I certainly won't pretend that's an insignificant challenge in an Ebor, but I think he's a fascinating horse at the price.

He's improved significantly since being gelded, won the Duke of Edinburgh at Royal Ascot and then stepped straight into Group 3 company at Goodwood and finished second. That was a tactical race where the winner got first run, but Opportunity travelled strongly and kept on well.

So we already know we're dealing with a horse capable of operating above ordinary handicap level.

Now he goes up in distance and, looking at his profile and pedigree, I don't think we've necessarily reached the ceiling of his improvement yet.

At 15/1 and bigger on the Exchange, I'm happy to find out.

The entire Ebor Race Card is FREE today, so whether you're backing Opportunity or wouldn't touch him with a bargepole, have a proper look through it. The VB Ratings, tissue prices, Live Value Scores and supporting data are there for all 20 runners.

That's the real point of VBG. Use the data, form your own opinion and then decide where you think the value lies.

For members, the Bet Finder takes that same philosophy across the whole day's racing and lets you search for opportunities using your own criteria.

And if today's Ebor card makes you curious about the rest of VBG, just email [email protected] and I'll get you set up with a completely free 7-day trial. No forms to fill in and no hassle.

One thing I've never understood with punters is the fear of backing a drifter.

People love a steamer. A horse gets backed from 8/1 into 5/1 and suddenly everyone wants a piece of it. Go the other way and plenty won't touch it.

Statistically, though, following that instinct isn't necessarily a route to profit. I've certainly never let a horse drifting put me off if I still believe the original reasoning stacks up.

Today's FREE interactive VBG Race Card is the 4.10 York and Morrophore is a pretty good example.

She was around 3/1 when the markets opened and has drifted markedly this morning. You can currently get around 7.8 on the Exchange, which looks a very big price to me.

I can see why she's drifting.

The ground is probably softer than ideal and her best turf performance came on firm ground. The market has clearly decided that's a significant negative.

I'm just not convinced it's as significant as the market now thinks.

She's still unexposed on turf, with much of her best work having come on the all-weather. And an artificial surface doesn't necessarily scream that a horse needs rattling-fast turf to perform at her best.

She's won three of her five handicaps, was good again at Lingfield last time and remains lightly raced enough to have more improvement in her. This is a step into Listed company, so we're asking another question, but I thought she was a value play before the drift and I certainly think she is now.

That's really the VBG philosophy in a nutshell.

A drifting price isn't automatically bad news. Sometimes the market knows something. Sometimes it's simply reassessing a horse more negatively than you are.

If your assessment of the horse hasn't changed, a bigger price means more value, not less.

Time will tell whether I'm right about Morrophore, but 7.8 on the machine looks a great price to me.

You can dig into the 4.10 York completely FREE today using the full interactive VBG Race Card, including the VB Ratings, tissue prices, Live Value Scores and supporting analytics.

And if you'd like to see the full service, including the Bet Finder, just email [email protected] and I'll set you up with a completely free 7-day trial. No forms to fill in and no hassle.

There's plenty to look forward to with what could be one of the races of the year tomorrow, but first there's a decent day's racing to get stuck into today.

I've made the 4.25 Chepstow today's FREE interactive VBG Race Card, where I've gone with Rogue Exile at 4/1.

He's only had two starts, so we're dealing with a horse we probably haven't seen anything like the finished version of yet.

He shaped well when second on debut at Yarmouth and then won at Lingfield despite still showing plenty of inexperience. He made the running but hung left when asked for his effort, so I thought there was something quite likeable about the fact he still managed to get the job done.

Today is his first handicap and that's where it becomes interesting from a betting perspective.

With an unexposed horse like this, nobody knows exactly how good he is yet. The handicapper is making an assessment. The market is making an assessment. I'm making mine.

Ultimately, betting is about deciding whose assessment is closest to the truth and whether the price gives you enough room to be wrong.

Rogue Exile also produces the strongest Data Centre score of my four selections today, which gives me another reason to think there could be more to come.

You can have a proper look yourself on the FREE Race Card. The VB Ratings, tissue prices, Live Value Scores and supporting analytics are there for every runner, so you don't need to take my word for anything.

That's the part of VBG I really want people to use.

The interactive Race Cards and bespoke VB Ratings let you form your own view of a race, while members can use the Bet Finder to search the whole day's racing for the horses that fit their own approach.

If you fancy trying the full service, just email [email protected] and I'll get you set up with a completely free 7-day trial. No forms to fill in and no hassle.

We're only a few days away from the Ebor meeting now, which is always one of my favourite weeks of the Flat season.

Big meetings are also where having a proper set of tools becomes particularly useful. There are plenty of competitive races to get through and, rather than just looking for somebody else's selections, I want VBG to give you a way of digging into them yourself.

That's where the interactive Race Cards, bespoke VB Ratings and Bet Finder really come into their own.

Before York gets underway, though, there's plenty to get stuck into today.

I've made the 6.40 Wolverhampton today's FREE interactive VBG Race Card, where my selection is Cailin Aine at 6/1.

She's an interesting filly making her nursery debut and trying 6f for the first time. There was plenty of promise earlier in her career, including fourth in the Lily Agnes at Chester, and she got off the mark at Musselburgh before tackling a much stronger race at York last time.

She was prominent there but looked to me as though the minimum trip was becoming a bit sharp, so I'm interested to see what she can do over an extra furlong today. She's got a useful draw, drops back against her own age group in handicap company and also comes out as one of the stronger value plays on my morning assessment.

The full Race Card is free to use, with the VB Ratings, tissue prices, Live Value Scores and supporting analytics there for every runner. Have a dig around and see what you make of the race yourself.

Members also have the Bet Finder, which becomes particularly handy on busy weeks like the one ahead at York. Rather than going race by race, you can search the day's runners using your own criteria and quickly narrow down the horses that interest you.

And if you've been thinking about giving VBG a try, just email [email protected] and I'll set you up with a completely free 7-day trial.

No forms to fill in and no hassle.

One thing I quite like about opening up a VBG Race Card every day is that you don’t have to agree with my selection.

I’ll tell you what I fancy and why, but the whole point of the Race Cards, Ratings and data is that you’ve got enough information there to come to your own conclusion.

Today’s FREE interactive VBG Race Card is the 5.45 Pontefract, where my pick is Rocking Ends at 8/1.

I thought his fifth at Ascot last time was better than it probably looks at first glance. He’d won at Newmarket the week before and then went into a stronger Class 2 from a 6lb higher mark. He raced a bit too freely in the visor but was still beaten less than two lengths.

Back at 5f today, there’s also an interesting jockey angle with Cieren Fallon returning. His only previous ride on Rocking Ends resulted in a win.

The form case is there for me, but what makes him particularly interesting is that the numbers back it up. He’s strong on both my morning value assessment and the wider Data Centre measures.

Have a look at the FREE Race Card and you’ll find the VB Ratings, our tissue prices, Live Value Scores and supporting analytics for every runner. You might land on Rocking Ends as well. You might find something completely different.

That’s fine by me. In fact, that’s increasingly the point of VBG.

For members, the Bet Finder takes it another stage further by letting you search the entire day’s racing using the criteria that matter to you.

And if you’ve been following the free cards and fancy having a proper look at everything else, just email [email protected] and I’ll get you set up with a completely free 7-day trial.

No forms to fill in and no hassle.

One of the things I probably don't talk about enough with betting is accepting that very few selections come without a negative somewhere.

Today's FREE interactive VBG Race Card is the 6.46 Lingfield, where I've gone with Hierarchy at 9/2, and he's actually quite a good example.

The obvious problem is his habit of starting slowly. He did it again at Southwell last time and left himself with far too much ground to make up.

Look a little deeper at the run, though, and it becomes more interesting. He covered the final three furlongs faster than every horse that finished ahead of him and was still doing his best work at the finish.

So I'm not pretending the slow starts don't matter. They do, particularly over 6f.

The question is whether everything else, including the price, makes that risk worth taking.

He's a previous course-and-distance winner, is proven on Polytrack and comes out as one of my strongest selections of the day both from a value perspective and across the wider Data Centre numbers.

That's quite a good example of how I use VBG myself.

The Race Cards and VB Ratings give you the wider picture rather than one headline statistic. Our tissue prices and Live Value Scores then bring the market into it, because ultimately a horse can have all the positives in the world and still be a bad bet at the wrong price.

For members, the Bet Finder takes the same data across the whole day's racing and lets you search for the type of opportunities that interest you.

Have a look at the FREE 6.46 Lingfield Race Card today and see what you make of Hierarchy yourself.

And if you fancy seeing the full service, just email [email protected] and I'll get you set up with a completely free 7-day trial. No forms to fill in and no hassle.

One thing betting teaches you fairly quickly is that there is rarely such a thing as the perfect bet.

Every horse has questions to answer. The important bit is deciding whether the price you're being offered adequately reflects them.

Today's FREE interactive VBG Race Card is the 5.58 Newbury, where I've gone with Zatsgood at 7/2.

He's progressed nicely on the all-weather and was only narrowly beaten at Newcastle last time after getting to the front inside the final furlong. The winner has subsequently won again, which gives that form a bit more substance.

The obvious question today is turf.

His previous run on grass was poor, but there were reasons to think he wasn't quite right that day and his pedigree gives me no great concern about the surface. First-time cheekpieces add another interesting element and his Data Centre numbers are strong enough to provide some support to the form case.

Does all that guarantee he'll reproduce his AW form today? Of course not.

But that's not really how I look at betting.

It's about assessing the positives and negatives, coming up with your own view of the horse's chance and then asking whether the available odds make that uncertainty worth taking on.

That's the thinking behind the VB Ratings, tissue prices and Live Value Scores you'll find on today's FREE Race Card. Have a look at all the runners and see whether you reach the same conclusion.

For members, the Bet Finder then lets you take that value-led approach across the entire day's racing rather than having to work through every race individually.

And if you've been meaning to have a proper look at VBG, you don't need to wait for the new app either.

Fancy seeing the full service? Just email [email protected] and I'll get you set up with a completely free 7-day trial. No forms to fill in and no hassle.

I've spoken a bit over the last day or so about what's been happening behind the scenes at VBG and the app that's now getting very close.

The app is obviously exciting for me, but the bigger thing is that VBG is starting to feel much more like the product I always wanted it to be.

The interactive Race Cards and bespoke VB Ratings give you somewhere to properly analyse a race. The Bet Finder then lets members turn all that data on its head and search the day's racing for the horses that fit their own criteria.

My own selections and analysis are still very much part of it, but they're part of the package rather than the whole reason for VBG existing.

As usual, I've opened up one of the premium interactive Race Cards completely free today.

It's the 7.58 Lingfield, where my NB is Miss Moneypit at 12/1.

She took a definite step forward when winning a nursery at Lingfield two starts ago and I'm happy enough to forgive her subsequent defeat over 6f. Dropping back to the minimum trip looks much more suitable, while she's got a handy draw to help her get involved early. Most importantly from my perspective, there's a pretty sizeable difference between the chance I give her and the price the market is offering this morning.

The FREE Race Card gives you the full VB Ratings, tissue prices, Live Value Scores and supporting data for the race, so have a look and see whether you come to the same conclusion.

There's plenty more coming with VBG over the next few weeks and I genuinely appreciate all the feedback and shares I've had so far.

And if you'd rather not wait for the app launch to have a proper look around:

Fancy seeing the full service? Just email [email protected] and I'll get you set up with a completely free 7-day trial. No forms to fill in and no hassle.

I’ve been hinting recently about what’s been going on behind the scenes at the VBG, and the biggest development is nearly ready.

The first VBG mobile app is now at the testing stage and will be released for free on the App Store very soon.

It brings together the Race Cards, bespoke VB Ratings, tissue prices, live Value Scores, Data Centre, Bet Finder, VB Generator and the VBG Magazine, all built around actually using VBG properly on your phone.

It’ll be iPhone first, with Android to follow.

The app is the obvious headline, but it’s only part of what I’ve been working on. There have been quite a few changes to the website, the Magazine is evolving, and I’m trying to bring everything together into a much more coherent VBG product.

I’ve written a longer piece explaining what we’ve been building, why some familiar things have moved around and where I’m hoping to take VBG from here.

There’s a slightly uncomfortable question at the heart of it too. After a couple of years and a fair amount of time and money, can VBG become a genuinely sustainable little business, or have I simply built myself a very good and increasingly expensive hobby?

I suppose we’re getting closer to finding out.

I’d massively appreciate any shares and/or feedback as we get closer to launch.

If you’ve got a spare couple of minutes, you can read a bit more about it here:

What We’ve Been Building at VBG – And Why the Next Few Weeks Matter VBG has been changing quite a bit behind the scenes. With our first mobile app getting closer to launch, I wanted to explain what I’ve been building, some of the changes you may already have noticed across the website and VBG Magazine, and where I hope to take the service next. There are also plan...