04/09/2026
COMMENT & ANALYSIS,GUN LAW
10 reasons not to hand your guns in on 2 November
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by Robert Borsak Jnr2 days ago2 days ago
Let’s start with the important part. Do not break the law. If a lawful deadline, direction or notice applies to you, obtain proper advice and comply with it.
However, do not confuse the opening of the Minns Government’s buyback with a requirement to surrender your fi****ms immediately. Based on the Government’s announcements and its Budget Estimates evidence, there are good reasons not to rush.
1. YOUR SURRENDER CAN BECOME A POLITICAL HEADLINE
• The NSW Government says up to 274,000 registered fi****ms may be affected.
• Its announcement said the buyback would take fi****ms “permanently off our streets”.
• These are principally registered fi****ms held by licensed owners and legally subject to safe-storage requirements.
• Every unwanted air r***e or old single-barrel sh***un surrendered can be added to the government’s headline number.
Bottom line: Do not help manufacture an opening-day success story before you have to make a decision.
Evidence: NSW Government announcement, NSW Government buyback information.
2. THE OPENING DATE IS NOT A SURRENDER DEADLINE
• Phase 1 starts on 2 November 2026.
• The government says the new possession limits and fi***rm reclassifications are not yet in force. Their commencement dates remain to be determined.
• NSW Police also says there is currently “no immediate seizure” of fi****ms from owners already above the future limits. Restrictions do, however, already apply to new Permit to Acquire applications.
Bottom line: Unless a deadline or direction applies specifically to you, 2 November is not a compulsory surrender date.
Evidence: NSW Government buyback information, NSW Police implementation information.
3. THE GOVERNMENT WILL BE TESTING THE SYSTEM ON PARTICIPANTS
• Police Minister Yasmin Catley said the buyback would initially operate through only a few police stations or police districts.
• Owners will need to book an appointment through Service NSW.
• Catley said the limited rollout would “pressure test” the system and ensure the Gun Safe database could cope.
• She hoped every police station would participate by early 2027 but would not commit to that date.
Bottom line: Opening-day participants will be entering a system that the Government is still testing.
Evidence: Police Minister’s Budget Estimates transcript, 28 August 2026.
4. THE COMPENSATION SCHEDULE IS INCOMPLETE
SFF MLC Mark Banasiak tested the published schedule at Budget Estimates. Important fi***rm types were not clearly covered, including:
• Single-shot target pistols
• Air pistols
• Black-powder fi****ms
• Muzzle-loading fi****ms
The Minister repeatedly took questions about their classification and compensation on notice. She also could not categorically confirm whether a technical fi****ms expert had helped develop the schedule.
Bottom line: Do not surrender a fi***rm before the government confirms exactly how it will classify and compensate it.
Evidence: Police Minister’s Budget Estimates transcript.
5. FIXED PAYMENTS MAY BE WELL BELOW MARKET VALUE
Phase 1 offers fixed amounts, including:
• $450 for an air r***e
• $600 for a rimfire r***e
• $650 for a single-barrel sh***un
• $850 for a double-barrel sh***un
• $1000 for a centrefire r***e or revolver
The payment is based on fi***rm type, not necessarily its condition, age, accessories or actual market value.
Fi***rms with an indicative value above $3000 must wait for Phase 2. That pathway is not scheduled to start until early 2027, requires an unspecified valuation fee and caps compensation at $10,000.
Bottom line: Record your fi***rm’s condition and value before making an irreversible decision.
Evidence: Official compensation schedule.
6. YOU MAY SURRENDER FIRST AND BE PAID LATER
• Participants will book an appointment and surrender their fi****ms at a designated police station.
• No maximum payment period has been published.
• At Budget Estimates, Banasiak described the proposed arrangement as receiving an “IOU slip”. The Minister defended the scheme but did not provide a payment deadline.
• No clear independent review process has been identified for a disputed classification, rejected payment or incorrect valuation.
Bottom line: Once the fi***rm has been surrendered, getting it back may not be possible. Payment and review rights should be clear first.
Evidence: Police Minister’s Budget Estimates transcript.
7. THE FI****MS REGISTRY IS ALREADY STRUGGLING
NSW Police’s own figures show:
• Finalisation of Permits to Acquire fell from 8849 in December 2025 to 2062 in June 2026.
• Average processing time increased from 8.93 days to 89.59 days over the same period, including the statutory cooling-off period.
• Catley acknowledged a “big backlog” and agreed that a reported 270-day wait affecting collector applications was “way too long”.
Bottom line: The agency administering the buyback is already dealing with major delays.
Evidence: NSW Police Registry data, June 2026, Budget Estimates transcript.
8. POLICE WERE NOT ACROSS THEIR OWN AMNESTY FIGURES
• Registry data presented at Budget Estimates showed permanent-amnesty hand-ins had fallen by approximately 30 per cent between comparable reporting periods.
• Catley and Police Commissioner Mal Lanyon said they were unaware of the reported decline.
• Registry data also showed dealers had handled almost 80 per cent of amnesty fi****ms.
• Lanyon acknowledged that police would face additional work if financially struggling dealers stopped providing that service.
Bottom line: The government is concentrating on registered fi****ms while its existing pathway for recovering unregistered fi****ms is going backwards.
Evidence: NSW Police Registry reports, Budget Estimates transcript.
9. IMPORTANT LICENSING QUESTIONS REMAIN UNANSWERED
• In February, Catley said she had received a full briefing and knew how Sajid Akram obtained his fi****ms licence.
• At the August hearing, she repeatedly declined to discuss important aspects of the licensing process, citing the Royal Commission and ongoing investigations.
• Questions remained about the claimed three-year processing delay and Registry records suggesting much shorter average processing times.
Bottom line: Licensed owners are being asked to surrender property while the government still refuses to explain critical licensing failures.
Evidence: Corrected February Budget Estimates transcript, August Budget Estimates transcript.
10. THE BELT-FED SH***UN PROBLEM REMAINS UNANSWERED
• The government expressly prohibited belt-fed sh***uns, despite Banasiak’s repeated point that no such fi***rm is known to exist.
• When asked what compensation a belt-fed sh***un would receive, Catley said it was prohibited.
• She did not identify where it appeared on the compensation schedule or what payment would apply.
Bottom line: If the government cannot explain its own prohibited categories, owners should be cautious about relying on its classifications.
Evidence: Police Minister’s Budget Estimates transcript.
WHAT YOU SHOULD DO NOW
• Do not panic.
• Determine whether the future limits actually affect you.
• Photograph your fi****ms and retain receipts, serial numbers and evidence of value. (See this article.)
• Wait for the government to publish the final classifications, surrender deadlines, payment timetable and review rights.
There is no prize for being first through the door on 2 November.
Do not hand your guns in just because the government wants an opening-day headline.
The 28 August Budget Estimates transcript was uncorrected at the time of writing.
