Market Misbehavior

09/18/2026

Pretty major shift this week in the survey, with only 29% bulls compared to 53% bears. Highest bearish reading since the March 2026 market low, and the widest spread of Bears-Bulls since April 2025!

09/18/2026

Now less than 30% of $SPX members remaining above their 50-day moving averages. Last time that happened? Mid-March 2026, a couple weeks before the low. 🤔

09/18/2026

The S&P 500 breakdown just failed.

Yesterday we closed below my key 7600 level. But instead of getting downside follow-through today, buyers came roaring back and pushed the S&P right back above support.

That’s why confirmation matters.

In the new CHART THIS, I break down the failed breakdown, the huge rebound in technology, the continued weakness in small caps, and a sentiment reading we haven’t seen since the March lows.

New episode is up now:

One day after the S&P 500 broke below the key 7600 level, buyers ca...

09/17/2026

A chart and a jazz score aren't as different as you'd think. They use the exact same part of the brain.

Before Kyle Crystal became a portfolio manager and CMT, he spent years training as a jazz guitarist, and that background quietly shapes how he reads every price chart he looks at today.

On one of my recent podcast episodes, Kyle, founder of Lakeshore Technical Analysis, walked me through the discipline behind it:

Why he abandoned pure fundamental analysis after 2009 taught him a great company doesn't always mean a great stock.
The exact "weekly-to-daily" timeframe he lives in, and why zooming in too close on your charts can quietly wreck your life.
Why Elliott Wave theory isn't really about predicting the future, and how he uses it instead as a "logic calculator" to define risk and reward.

If you want to know why the tools that work on stocks can fail badly on commodities, this is the one to listen to.

Stream the full episode below:

Spotify: https://open.spotify.com/episode/3wSXni02SK4Bf38LOfUqqz
Apple Podcasts: https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/its-all-about-the-timeframe-riding-the-elliott-wave/id1812778005?i=1000789327632
YouTube: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=D1SLa5mtvKs&t=2s

09/17/2026

Breakdown from yesterday's Chart This episode:

It was a Fed day, and it showed. Stocks sold off after the rate hike, the S&P broke below a support level Dave's been watching for weeks, and bond yields pushed higher as the market starts pricing in more hikes before year end.

-Why the Fed's move sent the S&P through key support before a late-day rally pulled it back

-Rising Treasury yields, with the 10-year back above 5%, and what that's signaling about the rate path ahead

-Market breadth continuing to weaken, though some of these washed-out readings could be setting up a short-term bounce

-Where relative strength is actually showing up: growth outperforming value, with a handful of names still bucking the sell-off

Bottom line: the Fed rattled the market today, breadth keeps eroding, but a few charts are still working, and that's where the opportunity is right now.

I cover the market daily on my Chart This YouTube series live. Watch yesterday's full episode here: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=pgmAuPan-jg

09/16/2026

The $SPX bull flag is hanging by a thread.

We closed back below my 7600 “line in the sand,” while breadth indicators continue to deteriorate. One more down day could turn what looks like a potential bullish continuation pattern into something much more concerning.

But not everything is breaking down.

Energy stocks continue to make new highs, and cybersecurity is showing some impressive relative strength.

In the new CHART THIS, I break down the warning signs AND the charts that are still working.

Watch here:

The S&P 500 closed back below the key 7600 level, leaving the poten...

09/15/2026

Day 2 at Futureproof Festival in Huntington Beach. Day 1 was packed, great conversations with market strategists, ETF providers, and money managers about how everyone's approaching 2026.

If you're here too, give me a shout on LinkedIn. I'd love to meet up while we're all on-site today and tomorrow.

09/15/2026

How bullish do I want to be on $NVDA is the stock is unable to hold support at the 50-day MA? If $NVDA pushed down once again to its 200-day, would I anticipate another bounce higher?

09/15/2026

You could consider the chart of as a potential head and shoulders top, or perhaps just featuring a key support range around 4300. If you assume the latter, then this week's action could be breaking below our "line in the sand". $GLD

09/15/2026

I learned a long time ago that while equity investors tend to be focused on potential gains, bond investors are often way better at detecting potential risks. So when the $MOVE index starts to spike higher before the $VIX does, that means someone somewhere is seeing something...