Touchline Probability Blog

Touchline Probability Blog Providing advanced football match previews, expected goals (xG) breakdowns, and tactical probability estimations.

For educational and entertainment purposes only.

22/08/2026

Today Banker
Bromley vs Cambridge X2
Valencia vs Celta X2
Parma vs Cagliari X2

14/07/2026

First Match of the Day
KF Drita - FK Kauno Zalgiris
My probabilities are based on the expected goals for (XG) and expected goals against (XGA)
Home: 33%
Draw: 31%
Away: 36%
Double chance: 1X
Second Match of the Day
France - Spain
My probabilities are based on the expected goals for (XG) and expected goals against (XGA)
Home: 26%
Draw: 41%
Away: 33%
Double chance: 1X

07/07/2026

Day Four winning streak. I have dropped predicitions for today. Let us go again.

07/07/2026

First Match of the Day
FK Vardar Skopje vs Kuopion Palloseura
My probabilities are based on the expected goals for (XG) and expected goals against (XGA)
Home: 39%
Draw: 26%
Away: 35%
Double chance: 1X
Second Match of the Day
Floriana FC vs Shamrock Rovers
My probabilities are based on the expected goals for (XG) and expected goals against (XGA)
Home: 24%
Draw: 27%
Away: 49%
Double chance: X2

07/07/2026

All my three double chance were correct yesterday. We go again. Enjoy this free predictions for now. I will drop my odds for today for uefa clubs that begins at 8pm. I am still following match news, weather conditions, and any other crucial parameter before i deliver the two predictions.

06/07/2026

Third Match of the Day
Portugal vs Spain
My probabilities are based on the expected goals for (XG) and expected goals against (XGA)
Home: 29.4%
Draw: 27.5%
Away: 43%
Predictions: X2 OR 2 DNB

06/07/2026

First Match of the Day
BK Hacken - Djurgardens IF
My probabilities are based on the expected goals for (XG) and expected goals against (XGA)
Home: 32%
Draw: 26%
Away: 42%
Double chance: X2
Second Match of the Day
Suduva Marijampole - TransINVEST Vilnius
My probabilities are based on the expected goals for (XG) and expected goals against (XGA)
Home: 34%
Draw: 28%
Away: 38%
Double chance: 1X
While my model shows that away team has a higher probability to win this game, the home team has a solid form. The playing format and tendency of low block football shows the home team will get something in this match.

05/07/2026

we do again tomorrow at 7 pm. I will drop two double chance.

05/07/2026

Day 3 winning streak. Congratulations to the winners

05/07/2026

First Match of the Day
Grobina - FK Tukums 2000
My probabilities are based on the past 15 home and away matches and use expected goals (XG).
Home: 27%
Draw: 34%
Away: 39%
Double chance: 1X
While the away side has a higher probability to win the game, the away form is very poor. The team enjoys a higher XG away from home but the tactical style, momentum, playing style and squad strenght indicate the home team will get something in this match.
Second Match of the Day
Fc Belshina Bobruisk - Fc Baranovichi
My probabilities are based on the past 15 home and away matches and use expected goals (XG).
Home: 38%
Draw: 23%
Away: 38%
Double chance: X2

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